Rocket Adventure

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“Both the Third Circuit and the District of New Jersey side with Kalshi, because the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction prompt state law,” Lever said, adding that “nothing in New Jersey’s filing” changes that view.

Each Supreme Court term begins on the first Monday in October and runs through late June or early July. The court typically receives about 7,000-8,000 writ petitions and grants about 80, or 1%, each term. Four of the nine sitting justices must vote to accept a case. Five current justices – Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Elena Kagan, Neil Gorsuch and Sonia Sotomayor – were on the bench in 2018 for the PASPA case.

There are no SCOTUS-prediction market contracts currently on Kalshi but Polymarket lists a 41% probability that the court will accept an event contract case by 31 December.

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Compared to the 2021 licensing round, the KSA adopted a more granular and stringent approach to its licence renewal process. This was expected following new policy rules set out by the regulator in September 2025.

One such rule was for licensees that had faced compliance enforcement during the five years operating in the Netherlands.

At the time KSA announced: “Providers that made mistakes in the past five years must explain during the application process how they have learned from previous mistakes and how they intend to prevent recurrence. If we find this explanation insufficient, the permit may be denied or additional conditions and restrictions may be imposed.” 

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If approved, the funds would hold baskets of the CME-traded derivatives. LeagueShares went a step further by adding a filing for 2x leveraged MLB futures funds.

“Of course there’s already a filing for daily leveraged futures baseball ETFs — which are basically the equivalent of a corked bat with eight holes drilled in the handle that’s been dipped in pine tar,” wrote Ben Johnson, head of client solutions at Morningstar, on X.

As of yet, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hasn’t approved the aforementioned NHL futures ETFs.