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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
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The Gambling Commission’s industry activity report for the financial year April 2025 to March 2026, has reported an increase of 4.4% in GGY across all channels, to £17.5 billion.
The growth, driven predominantly by remote (online) gambling activities, contrasts with a decline in physical gambling premises, highlighting shifting consumer preferences and market dynamics.
When excluding all reported lottery activity, GGY increased to £13.2 billion, up 4.7% year-on-year.
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One such rule was for licensees that had faced compliance enforcement during the five years operating in the Netherlands.
At the time KSA announced: “Providers that made mistakes in the past five years must explain during the application process how they have learned from previous mistakes and how they intend to prevent recurrence. If we find this explanation insufficient, the permit may be denied or additional conditions and restrictions may be imposed.”
This requirement raised concerns among operators worried that the barriers to entry could have become more restrictive, But at a meeting on the policies last year the regulator assured licensees it was not enforcing a specific strict rule on this.
